Friday, April 28, 2006

When Is An Investor Not An Investor?

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Inman News quotes David Seiders of NAHB speculating that the drop in new home sales is just "investors and speculators" stepping out of the market... a good thing... but then he goes on to say that what we don't want to see is "investors" dumping homes on the market.

Wait. Hold up. Let me get this straight. It's a good thing that investors are "stepping out." BUT, it would be a bad thing if they start "dumping homes."

How is "stepping out" not the same as "dumping?"

If your girlfriend "steps out" on you, is it not safe to assume that you've been "dumped?"

I guess it's the same way so many bubble deniers say the "bubble" is not a "bubble."

Words are some tricky shit.

Here's an excerpt:
David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said he expects new-home sales to drop 12 percent this year compared to a record 1.28 million units in 2005.

New-home sales in the first quarter of this year were down 10 percent from fourth-quarter 2005, and he said he expects sales to ease further in the coming months before leveling off in 2007. Seiders spoke Thursday during a National Association of Home Builders Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C.

Rising interest rates, affordability problems and the flight of investors and speculators have contributed to a softening demand for housing, economists said at the conference, according to an announcement by the home builders group.

"After topping out in the third quarter of last year, it is pretty clear that the housing sector is in a period of transition. Sales and starts are trending lower toward more sustainable levels," Seiders said. "Hopefully, most of this decline will be due to investors and speculators stepping out of the market. What we don't want to see is investors dumping homes on the market."

Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc., said, "The housing sector is going through an adjustment, not a collapse."

-- The Boy in the Big Housing Bubble/Los Angeles and Beyond