‘Inventory, Inventory, Inventory’

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I've said it before. Others have said it before. Now others are saying it more. The key is not in sales prices. It's in inventory.

Danielle DiMartino, a columnist who writes about business for the Dallas Morning News says it in her column today.

Here's an excerpt:

When it comes to real estate, they say it's all about "location, location, location." Recent data suggest the key is inventory, inventory, inventory – even in Dallas-Fort Worth.

A big factor in Wednesday's jump in stock prices was the fresh data on new-home inventories. After hitting 6.3 months' supply in February, the highest level in more than 10 years, last months' supply had slid back to 5.5 months, which was seen as a sign of a controlled deflation of the housing bubble.

What few noted was that the total number of homes rose to another record high, despite the fastest rise in sales in 13 years. At 555,000, new homes on the market are up 24.4 percent over last year.

If you want a tie-breaker, look at prices. The median home price is down 2.2 percent in the last year; the average has slid 3.6 percent.

The inventory data were even more revealing in Tuesday's existing-homes report. At 2.7 million, single-family home inventories are up 33 percent since last year.

Drilling down even deeper, at 494,000, the number of condos on the market is up 85 percent.

When you're right, you're right.

Pop goes the ...

-- The Boy in the Big Housing Bubble/Los Angeles and Beyond