Tuesday, November 29, 2005


We're at the point of no popping.

It is the place where everyone stands around blinking very quickly, as though there's an overinflated balloon right before their eyes. They know what's coming. They can sense the slowing momentum. They can hear the stretch and strain. Blink faster. It's going to pop any minute now.

Any minute now.


It's going to pop.

Now. C'mon.


I said ‘Pop!’

There's plenty of evidence to support that it's coming. And even more analysts who have stepped up to the microphone to declare their clairvoyance on this matter.

Look at the latest sales data out of California. The median price for the state in October was up a whopping 17.2 percent from the same month last year, but sales were down 2.8 percent. Prices rising, sales slowing. Sounds like another piece of evidence that the balloon is reaching the breaking point.

But, still, no pop.

It's causing disorders. People are getting a little twitchy. They're becoming frustrated. It's like sitting in a dunk tank and watching those balls fly at the target. After awhile, you're ready to just dive in and get it over with.

As Nina over at Sitting Pretty stated so well this week:
"Enough... I am ready for the burst."
It may be a long wait.

A news analysis by Michael Englund and Rick MacDonald at Business Week addresses that point most directly in the final paragraph of their story:
... calling the top won't be easy until we see signs that price declines are actually emerging. Any pop in the bubble may not occur until 2006 -- or even 2007, depending on the course for Fed policy and market interest rates.
So, until then, we blink. What else can we do?

— The Boy in the Big Housing Bubble